Hagopian's Rule

[VietCurrency]

ANDREWS PITCH-FORK

Hagopian's Rule
Security: !COMP
Position: N/A


Figure 1 is the monthly chart of the NASDAQ Composite Index. This chart shows the long-term trend of the NASDAQ. The first thing Alan Andrews did when looking at a new chart was to identify the significant pivot points. These significant pivot points have been identified and labeled P0, P1, and P2 on the chart. Andrews noted that a trend was typically made up of five significant pivot points. Two of these significant pivot points in the downtrend have so far been developed and identified. Andrews did not include pivot point P0 in this count. This leaves three significant pivot points yet to be developed before the downward trend can be considered complete.Hình số 1 là cái monthly chart của chỉ số Nasdaq Composite Index. Đây là cái long-term trend của Nasdaq. Việc đầu tiên mà ông Alan Andrews làm khi phân tích chart là kiếm các điểm gọi là significant pivot points. Các điểm này được đánh dấu bằng P0, P1, và P2. Andrews tin rằng một cái trend trên chart thường được đánh dấu bởi 5 điểm gọi là significant pivot points. 2 trong 5 điểm này của cái down trend đã tìm thấy. Andrews không tính điểm P0 là 1 trong 5 điểm quan trọng này. Như thế có nghĩa là chỉ có 2 trong 5 đã thấy được trên chart, và cũng có nghĩa rằng 3 cái còn lại thì chưa thấy. Một khi 3 cái này hiện ra thì cái down trend hiện tại coi như xong.




FIGURE 1: !COMP, MONTHLY. See the Andrews pitchfork and the Hagopian line. Graphic provided by: AmiBroker.com.


After identifying the significant pivot points, Andrews would then draw his famous pitchfork as shown in Figure 1. Andrews noted in his studies that 80% of the time price would move down to the median line (ML) of his pitchfork before reversing directions. However, he also noted that there were times when price would not make it to the median line before reversing directions; he called this a price failure.

Andrews further noted through his studies that when a price failure occurred it often indicated a significant reversal would carry price much further than it did on its approach to the median line. This then suggests that there is a high probability for price to exceed its late 2007 high. The official call for a price reversal was more involved than just noting that price failed to reach the median line, however. To complete the price failure analysis Andrews would wait to see if price broke out above its upper parallel line; labeled U-MLH on the chart. If a breakout occurred Andrews would then draw a Sliding Horizontal line off the high of the break out bar as shown on the chart. If price then subsequently broke out above the Sliding Horizontal line within two to three days, as on the chart of Figure 1, a price failure was officially called.
Sau khi kiếm xong các điểm significant pivot points, ông Andrews mới vẽ cái pitchfork nổi tiếng của mình như trong hình số 1 phía trên. Ông ta từng tuyên bố rằng 80% giá sẽ đi xuống lằn median line (ML = median line là lằn chính giữa) trước khi xoay chiều. Tuy nhiên, có nhiều khi giá không xuống thấp đến mức đó. Hiện tượng này được ông gọi là PRICE FAILURE.

Ngoài ra, ông ta cũng nhận định thêm rằng một khi giá không đi xuống đến lằn median line (price failure) thì đó là dấu hiệu reversal với một ẩn lực rất mạnh và sẽ mang giá lên rất cao sau này. Nếu hiện tượng này xảy ra thì nó có một sát xuất khá cao về việc giá có thể đi cao hơn cái điểm cao của 2007 trên chart. Tuy nhiên, việc thấy được hiện tượng PRICE FAILURE trên chart không đơn giản như sự việc khi đi xuống giá có đụng lằn ML hay không. Để xác định hiện tượng này, ông Andrews chờ xem coi giá có vượt nổi lằn upper parallel line phía trên hay không? Lằn này mang tên là U-MHL trên chart. Nếu nó đi qua được thì ông ta sẽ vẽ thêm một đường gọi là Sliding Horizontal Line từ điểm cao nhất của cái break out bar. Nếu sau đó giá vẫn tiếp tục đi lên cao hơn lằn Sliding Horizontal Line này thì đó là dấu hiệu của một Price Failure thật sự. (Xin nhìn lên chart phía trên để thấy rỏ hơn.)



Another method used to determine a price failure and the probability that price would move significantly higher is called the Hagopian rule. The Hagopian rule was developed by a student of Andrews and it worked so well that Andrews included it in his own studies. The Hagopian rule states that when price reverses its trend before reaching a line at which a high probability indicates such a reversal could take place, a buy or sell signal was given when price crossed the first trendline that sloped away from the median line. This first line that slopes away from the median line is called the Hagopian line and is drawn and labeled in Figure 1.

In conclusion, price has now moved above the sliding horizontal line, signaling a price failure has occurred and that price will now move significantly further than it did on its approach to the median line, further suggesting a probability that price will move above the late 2007 high. In addition, if price now moves above the Hagopian line, a buy signal is generated and is also an indication that price has much further to go on the upside. However, the probability for higher prices is negated if price fails to break out above the Hagopian line. Therefore, it is important to wait the crossing of the Hagopian line to confirm that a price failure has occurred and prices are ready to move significantly higher.

Một phương cách khác để xác định hiện tượng PRICE FAILURE và sát xuất giá sẽ lên cao trong tương lai gọi là HAGOPIAN RULE. Định luật này được sáng chế từ người học trò của ông Andrews, và nó khá chính xác. Chính xác đến nổi, ông Andrews bỏ nó luôn vào trong cái Pitchfork của ông ta. Luật Hagopian nói rằng hiện tượng price failure sẽ đúng hơn nếu giá đi qua được lằn Hagopian line luôn. Có nghĩa rằng khi giá rớt từ trên xuống, chưa kịp đụng lằn ML và xoay chiều. Muốn biết chắc chắn rằng nó sẽ xoay chiều thật sự hay không thì nó phải đi qua luôn lằn Hagopian line. Hiện tượng mà giá đi qua được luôn lằn này xác định rằng nó sẽ đi lên luôn, và a Price Failure thành hình. (Xem hình số 1 để thấy rỏ hơn)

Kết luận: Khi giá lên cao hơn lằn sliding horizontal line, đó là dấu hiệu của một price failure đang thành hình. Tuy nhiên, muốn thật sự chắc chắn thì giá phải đi qua cái gọi là Hagopian line. Khi giá qua được đó rồi thì đó là một buying signal đã xuất hiện trên chart. Vì thế, khi xài phương thức Andrews' Pitch Fork và thấy được hiện tượng price failure thì nên chờ cho giá clear lằn Hagopian Line trước khi nhảy vào GO LONG.

[Socola]

cảm ơn anh VC chia sẻ...

[thang822462]

Hình như trong cái BOE's minutes thì người ta thấy rằng khả năng BOE tăng phân lời trong tương lai không cao lém và số lượng quantitative easing được rút ra từ kinh tế sẽ rất ít. Thêm vào đó lượng tiền M4 trong kinh tế tuột xuống mức thấp nhất trong giai đoạn vừa qua. Tôi không còn theo dõi thằng em này nhiều vì nó chưa có gì sáng lạng trên phương diện trading. Giá vẫn còn trade sideway. Tôi đang canh me thằng em EURUSD và USDCHF. EURUSD thì có thể sẽ có an oversold bounce.
Bang chủ chưa entry sao:th_man_in_love:,e thấy chú này form 1 formation bullish roaf,tạm thời e zô 1 lệnh test.
Theo e chú này sẽ sớm clear cái res 105 nay mai:th_jumping3:

[VietCurrency]

:th_emotion-67: Tôi đâu có chậm dữ vậy bác. Xong hít rùi. Ăn rồi, ra rồi bác ui. Tôi trade nó theo phương pháp Andrew's Pitchfork...so far so good. Tôi ra là vì nó đang đụng lằn Hagopian Line. Hm..pretty damn good trade. Lằn màu trắng đậm phía trên là Hagopian's line được vẽ từ cái Pitchfork màu vàng.

[langthang08]

Lang thang search thì thâý bài này cũng khá hay nên xin lôi về đây cùng thảo luận. hơi dài nhưng khá chi tiết.


The Hagopian Rule and Line

Given the importance of the very little known Hagopian Rule, we will repeat it here for the benefit of the reader who may not know it. The rule applies when an up-sloping market is approaching a significant trend line (slant, horizontal or curvilinear), but it's not strong enough to test it (Example: The ML of an up-sloping pitchfork).

The rule states that the price will reverse vigorously after approaching the ML in a big counter-move. Then, it drops like a rock toward an opposite strong trend line (L-MLH and the lower trigger line [L-TL], in our Figure 1 example). Its reverse momentum is usually stronger than the momentum of its prior approach.

In its strong counter-move impetus, price will meet the same trend line that it was drifting alongside of before reversing. In our example, that line is the lower trigger line (L-TL), which joined the anchor (P0) and the P2 of the up-sloping pitchfork (refer to Figure 1). It represents the Hagopian Line, which has the benefit of completing the set-up of the price failure rule.



The lower trigger line of the pitchfork shown above naturally converts into a Hagopian Line at the occurrence of the double up-sloping price failures revealed by the strong slant resistance (TL-1). Concerning the Hagopian Line, Dr. Alan H. Andrews clearly stated:

When prices reverse trend before reaching a line [ML in our example] at which probability indicates such a reversal could start, proper action may be taken in buying or selling, if prices cross the trend line [L-TL in our example] they were moving along before reversing.

The Hagopian Rule is clearly illustrated in the 5-minute German Dax futures chart shown above (refer to Figure 1). After the two up-sloping failures in the 5073 - 5070 price zone (lower highs), the price dropped like a stone, in a huge counter-trend movement. It zoomed through the Hagopian Line (lower trigger line in our example) and then re-tested the line twice before deciding to take the path of least resistance in a high downward momentum move. The numerous, huge down-sloping bars confirmed it.

Parallel Trigger Line Channel Can Signal the Trend's Termination

Whenever the trigger lines are out of the market flow field, we can successfully replace them with parallel trigger lines.



The gold futures chart shown above, with its current 8110 highest high, might make the trader wonder…What is so special about this? We have drawn it because we would like that trader to imagine what tools would be the best for the "would-be" pitchfork's trigger lines or the parallel trigger lines.



Now, on Figure 3, we have drawn the pitchfork from the chart of Figure 2, but with its upper trend line added. One can obviously see that the trigger line is outside, far away from the market flow field.



On the pitchfork shown above in Figure 4, we have drawn, not only its upper trigger line, as in Figure 3, but also its parallel trigger line up-sloping channel formed by the following:

* The upper border parallel trigger line, drawn from the intersection of the P1-P2 midpoint swing with the median line
* The lower border parallel trigger line, drawn from the pitchfork's P2 pivot
* The mid-channel line, which splits the channel into two parts

One can obviously observe in Figure 4 that market flow is cruising upward along the lower mid-channel. It seems that the last price bar is initiating a breakout of the mid-channel line, having as a prime target the upper border or maybe even higher. The ultimate target would be the upper part of the trigger line, in the case of an extended trend.



On the pitchfork shown above in Figure 5, we have drawn, not only its parallel trigger line up-sloping channel (as in Figure 4), but also the pitchfork's third upper warning line (WL-3). Market flow has continued climbing from the 8110 to the 8480 key level.

As we had anticipated, market price has already attained the upper border of the parallel trigger line channel, and now it is being trapped under it, in spite of the last two bars' highs, which almost reached WL-3. This double halting, on the high and close levels of the last two bars, signals a very strong and very probable reversal.



It is always safe to have a complementary signal confirmation. We were able to find an emerging rectangle (refer to Figure 6), which has constituted the foundation of this strong three-month trend.

We can observe that the 839.3 key level represents its sixth extension, just a few points away from the current highest high at 848.0. Our confidence has increased considerably, and we are ready for a short trade, if market flow will reverse.



As we had anticipated, after performing a small doji, the market suddenly dropped (refer to Figure 7).



Even on its way down, the market obeys WL-1 and the channel's lower-border confluence (refer to Figure 8).

The Parallel Trigger Line Channel and Its Extensions -- Corrective Wave Projection



After the high-powered down-sloping impulse wave has been halted at the 7917 key level, we have drawn a parallel trigger trend line (refer to Figure 9). We are now expecting a correction wave, which can be a zigzag, a flat or a triangle pattern.

We have opted for the zigzag correction pattern, given the high-powered down momentum, which will probably travel along a parallel trigger line channel, whose lower border is already drawn.

If we apply the "What If..." concept, we should also be prepared for a flat or a triangle correction; thus we have drawn the horizontal trend lines at the 7917, 8025 and 8107 key levels.

[langthang08]

The advantage of the parallel trigger line channel is that it can be constructed with only two opposite touches instead of the four indispensable touches necessary to construct the classic channel (refer to Figure 10). Thus, we have started to draw an ascending channel whose complete form is not yet finally defined.

If we carefully study the inception of the correction movement shown above, we realize that we have, so far, two choices for possible chart formations.

In the first choice, our expected chart formation has an up-sloping direction conforming to that of the trigger line. It is graphically oriented in the direction of the parallel trigger channel. So far, we already have two touches, on the upper and lower parallel trigger lines. We'll see what the following bars will have to offer...

The second chart formation is a less probable one, taking the form of a flat or complex pattern and a horizontal pattern…maybe a rectangle. Once again, the next bars will have the last word...



The market dropped all the way down to the lower border of the parallel trigger line channel (refer to Figure 11). For now, it seems that the probability that our expected chart formation will take shape is enhanced and even vouched for, because it already has four touches. Plus, it has not only tested and re-tested the lower border but has also reversed and started to climb.

At any rate, the 7917 lowest low of the local market hasn't yet been touched, meaning that the probability of a rectangle choice is, for the moment, close to zero.



As we had anticipated, the up-sloping parallel trigger channel is confirmed with a steep 45° slope (refer to Figure 12). The channel is well established, having three lower border channel touches and seven upper border channel touches.

The local market seemed to be inclined to reverse, but, then, for a moment, halted just on the midline of the channel.



As we have taken into consideration in the prior chart, the market flow not only reversed, but it spilled down from the initial channel (refer to Figure 13). It dropped all the way down to the 150% extension of the initial channel, to the 7830 key level, being short only 30 points off the whole number 7800 key level , which at the same time, is a strong, old, low level (P2).

As you can see from the preceding explanation and the accompanying charts, parallel trigger line channeling, combined with its extensions and guided by the Fibonacci ratios, provides a real edge for the professional trader.


Nguồn : www.esignallearning.com

[thang822462]

:th_emotion-67: Tôi đâu có chậm dữ vậy bác. Xong hít rùi. Ăn rồi, ra rồi bác ui. Tôi trade nó theo phương pháp Andrew's Pitchfork...so far so good. Tôi ra là vì nó đang đụng lằn Hagopian Line. Hm..pretty damn good trade. Lằn màu trắng đậm phía trên là Hagopian's line được vẽ từ cái Pitchfork màu vàng.



ôi bài của e nhảy sang bên này à?:th_man_in_love:,thiệt tình e ko hiểu Pitchfork là cái gì?
e chơi theo PA=price action thui,bữa nào rảnh mới ngồi ngâm kía mấy món Pitchfork với Hapopian j đó